China is approaching the peak of oil imports: key factors and forecasts

Oil imports to China may peak as early as next year due to a decrease in demand for fuel for transport. The country’s rapid transition to electric vehicles has become an unexpected challenge for oil producers and investors. In July, sales of electric vehicles and hybrids exceeded sales of cars with internal combustion engines for the first time, which reduced gasoline needs and affected overall oil demand.

China has accounted for 41% of global oil consumption growth over the past three decades, but current economic weakness and accelerated electrification have changed forecasts. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), the decline in demand for transport fuel began earlier than the expected plateau of 2025-2027.

In the future, oil consumption in China will be supported mainly by the growth of the petrochemical sector, which requires adaptation of the strategies of producers and investors in the global market.