Global Oil Market Enters a Phase of Structural Oversupply

Analysts increasingly agree that 2026 will be marked by a sustained supply surplus in the oil market. A consensus forecast compiled from roughly 60 analytical firms puts the average Brent crude price for the year at around 60 dollars per barrel.

Production growth outside OPEC+, led by the United States, Canada, and Argentina, continues to outpace growth in global demand. At the same time, oil consumption growth is slowing in China and several other major economies, adding further pressure on prices.

According to analysts, the structural supply surplus could persist for several years. Market participants point to demand growth in India and Southeast Asia, along with future OPEC+ production decisions, as the key factors that could shift the price trajectory.